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德国造船协会发文分析当前全球和德国造船工业现状和发展趋势

德国造船与海洋工程行业协会(Verband Für Schiffbau Und Meerestechnik E. V.,German Shipbuilding And Ocean Industries Association))日前发布了一篇文章,分析了全球和欧洲造船工业现状和发展趋势,全文如下。

正筹备第四届2020国际船用洗涤塔和压载水上海峰会将于2020年8月26-27日在上海市举办的国际船舶海工网了解到。

造船业一直以来都是衡量全球贸易长期发展的一个重要指标,有全球贸易发展检测的地动仪之称。全球95%的货物交易是通过船舶航运完成。当市场有着积极的发展预期时,航运公司就会订购新船。当前新冠病毒疫情不仅带来了市场的短期扭曲,还给市场的中期发展带来了相当大的不确定性。公共和私营债务的急剧增加将带来巨大消费损失。目前阻碍全球货物交易的趋势还将进一步加剧恶化。

需求预期下降

在这种环境下,与资本货物相关的投资决策通常会推迟,如船舶等。因此,造船业应为全球需求长期低迷做好准备。考虑到自2016年以来造船市场的疲软,全球新造船订单量在过去4年里低于造船量的40%以上,需求的持续下降将使目前全球造船产能利用率不足的情况进一步恶化。已确认订单的取消可能会使情况进一步变糟。目前,市场上已经出现愈演愈烈的降价以及补贴竞争行为。

文章称,德国和欧洲造船厂已专注于高附加值船舶领域,因而有能力摆脱全球造船经济低迷的影响,在新冠病毒爆发之前,欧洲船厂的手持订单可以使这些船厂维持4年以上。然而中日韩船厂的手持订单仅能维持两年左右。

虽然手持订单较多,但欧洲市场受到的冲击尤为严重,复杂的项目需要更长的交付周期。从进度而言,签署新的造船订单到船舶交付平均需要3.5年的时间;而客船和游艇的合同前阶段有时也需要同样长的时间。

无一船型市场幸免

目前为止,欧洲造船业最成功的船型当属邮轮,95%的邮轮在欧洲建造。然而,邮轮是受此次疫情影响最严重的市场。货船的货运量减少,而邮轮业的运营已处于完全停滞状态。因此,未来几年内,邮轮市场不太可能再有新造船订单。

然而,对于VSM协会而言,需要特别强调的是此次造船危机并不仅仅局限于邮轮行业。即使政府部门(海军及其他政府部门)的造船订单也不能完全逃脱此次疫情大流行带来的影响,原因在于危机管理后公共债务的增加会限制全球的投资力。因此,在考虑造船业的危机管理时,应将整个造船业作为一个整体。值得注意的是,造船业在复杂的价值链中实现了特别高的就业效应,占据了尤其高的国内就业份额。在德国,共约有2800家企业以及20万名员工从事造船及海洋行业。这些公司为德国交付的船舶创造了约85%的国内附加值。

目前为止,欧洲是海运供应行业最重要的市场。以出口为导向的船舶机械和系统供应商约四分之一的营业额来自于亚洲船厂。

呼吁推行临时船队更新计划

因此,VSM协会与其欧洲各地的同事正呼吁发起临时船队更新计划,该计划基于与政府部门(如海岸警卫队、警察、消防队、科考船以及公共交通部门等)签署的合同,以及针对环境友好型商业船只的激励措施。此次计划的目的是至少弥补一些预期需求损失,以防止整个行业不受控制地完全崩盘。造船业必须尽一切努力在降低成本的基础上,保持技术的领先地位并保留大部分熟练员工。出于同样的原因,即使在危机期间,也必须继续进行研发工作,保持对海洋气候和环境保护的关注。

一份精心设计的船队更新计划可能成为未来技术领先的决定性因素。此外,现在也有必要推出有效措施来打击造船业的不公平竞争行为。这样,一旦市场复苏,一个健康和富有竞争力的造船行业将会为国家的繁荣和清洁的海洋经济做出持久的贡献。

国际船舶海工网也邀请您关注:

第四届2020国际船用洗涤塔和压载水上海峰会将于2020年8月26-27日在上海市举办

第三届2020年LNG动力船和LNG技术装备上海国际峰会将于2020年9月9日-10日举办

免费的2020年绿色船舶创新上海国际展览和论坛将于10月20-22日举办

The Shipbuilding And Ocean Technology In Germany – Current Situation

Shipbuilding has always been a seismograph for long-term development lines in world trade. 95% of the global exchange of goods is handled by ship. New ships are ordered when the market expects positive developments. SARS-CoV-2 not only leads to short-term distortions, but also to considerable uncertainties for the medium-term development. The sharp increase in public and private sector debt will result in high consumption losses. Existing trends that impede the global exchange of goods will be reinforced. Global systemic tensions, especially between China and the USA, are intensifying.

Slump in demand expected

In such an environment, investment decisions related to capital goods such as ships are typically postponed. Therefore, the shipbuilding sector should prepare for an extended period of low demand around the globe. Considering the weakness of the shipbuilding market since 2016 – with the global newbuilding orderbook remaining more than 40% below production over the past four years – this additional drop in demand will severely worsen the current under-utilisation of the world’s shipbuilding capacity. Cancellations of confirmed orders could further exacerbate the situation. Intensified price dumping practices and subsidy races can be observed already today. So far, both German and European shipbuilding have been able to decouple themselves from the weak global shipbuilding economy by successfully focusing on high-tech segments.

On average, the European pre-Coronavirus orderbook would have kept shipyards busy for more than four years, much longer than in other shipbuilding countries such as China, Korea or Japan, where the current orderbooks would last roughly two years only. However, the larger order backlog cannot hide the fact that the European market segments are hit particularly hard and that complex projects require longer lead times. Across the range of products made in Europe, more than 3.5 years on average pass between the signing of a newbuilding contract and the ship’s delivery; in the case of passenger ships and yachts, the pre-contract phase sometimes takes a similar amount of time.

All segments are affected

To date the most successful shipping segment – the cruise sector – has ordered its ships predominantly (95%) in Europe. But this ship type has been hit the hardest by the pandemic. While cargo vessels are suffering from a reduced cargo volume, the cruise industry has seen its operation come to a total standstill. therefore, it is unlikely that any new orders will be placed in this segment for years to come.

However, for VSM it is important to underline that the shipbuilding crisis will not be limited to the cruise segment alone. Even order from public entities (naval and other government vessels) will not 2/2 be exempted from the consequences of the pandemic, as the increasing public debt in the wake of the crisis management will limit investment capacity worldwide. Therefore, when considering crisis management in the shipbuilding industry, the industry as a whole must be considered. Particularly high employment effects are achieved in the complex value chain, which in shipbuilding has a particularly high domestic share. In Germany there are about 2,800 companies and about 200,000 employees active in shipbuilding and ocean industries. Together they generate a domestic value added of approx. 85% on deliveries from German shipyards.

Europe is by far the most important market for the maritime supply industry The export-oriented maritime machinery and system suppliers generate about a quarter of their turnover with shipyards in Asia.

Call for a temporary fleet renewal programme

The VSM, together with its colleagues throughout Europe, is therefore campaigning for a temporary fleet renewal programme based both on public contracts (e.g. coastguard, police, fire brigade, research vessels, public transport etc.) and on incentives for the environmentally friendly commercial ships. The purpose of this initiative is to compensate for at least some of the expected loss of demand so as to prevent an uncontrolled breakdown of the entire sector. The industry must now make every effort to reduce its cost basis while maintaining its technology leadership and keeping most of its skilled workforce on board. For the same reason it is imperative to continue research and development efforts and maintain the focus on maritime climate and environment protection, even during the crisis.

A well-designed fleet renewal programme can be a decisive factor in getting a head start on tomorrow’s technology. Furthermore, it is time to finally introduce effective measures to fight unfair competition in the shipbuilding sector so that once the market recovers, a healthy and competitive shipbuilding industry can make a lasting contribution to national prosperity and a clean maritime economy.

Source: Verband Für Schiffbau Und Meerestechnik E. V. (German Shipbuilding And Ocean Industries Association)

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